An investigation into a non-linear stochastic trend model

The paper explores the empirical properties of a non-linear stochastic trend model which can be viewed as an intermediate case between a linear and a log-linear trend model. I assess the small sample distribution of the ML estimator by Monte Carlo simulations and use it to model some typical macroeconomic time series. The non-linear trend model turns out to be an important tool which warrants further analysis. I also compute impulse response functions and compare them with those obtained from a conventional linear model. First version received: August 1997/final version received: June 1998     

Interactions of stock markets within the greater China economic bloc

This paper investigates what types of mutual relationships exist among the stock markets of the Greater China economic bloc, which include stock markets in Hong Kong and Taiwan, as well as stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Using the unit root test, co‐integration analysis, and vector error correction model (VECM), this paper analyzes interrelationships among daily stock indices for the period from the beginning of 1992 to the end of 2001. Test results indicate the existence of one co‐integrating vector, implying that a long‐run equilibrium relationship holds among the four stock indices. Variance decomposition of forecast errors provides evidence that the Shenzhen stock market is the market most heavily influenced by the unexpected variations of other markets in the Greater China economic bloc.     

The Age of Capital, 1848–1875

Much has been written in the post-World War II era in the United States about the rise of suburbia and development beyond older city boundaries, whether such development has been called urban, suburban, or ex-urban sprawl. Many writers have focused on various issues concerning sprawl, especially on the unintended consequences that new development has had on (among other issues) municipal finances, neighborhood income and residential segregation, and transportation planning. This last one is important since post-World War II development has mostly centered around the automobile in the United States. Over the last decade, a new area in the literature of sprawl has focused on how the "built-environment" of residential areas can impact health. For example, authors have chronicled how sprawled regions have higher auto vehicle accidents per capita, greater obesity rates, worse carbon emissions (due to greater travel by automobile), and delays in emergency medical service responses. This article adds to the latest set of papers on sprawl by empirically estimating the impact of sprawl in metropolitan regions on fire incidents per capita, firefighter response times, as well as property losses, and deaths due to fire. The results of our exploratory analysis indicate that urban sprawl is an important factor in influencing firefighting issues and outcomes in the United States. Moreover, urban sprawl frequently becomes a factor in delayed response to fires which, in turn, could lead to additional deaths and property loss.     

How to trust? The importance of self‐efficacy and social trust in public responses to industrial risks

Although a great deal of research has linked both self‐efficacy and social trust to risk responses, one overlooked question concerns the association between self‐efficacy and institutional trust. The purpose of this study was to investigate the main and combined effects of trust in the self and trust in responsible agencies to affective responses and information sufficiency. Survey respondents in this study were placed into one of four categories based on their levels of self‐efficacy (high/low) and social trust (high/low), including confidence, independence, dependence and insecure groups. Based on survey data (n = 466), the accuracy of the four‐group classification was tested. Indeed, we found that our classification system correlated with responses. Both self‐efficacy and institutional trust were found to contribute to emotional risk responses, as well as risk information needs and preferences for risk information.     

基于城乡消费差异的农民工市民化动态分析

运用VAR脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,实证考量1978～2010年间消费对农民工市民化的动态影响效应。结果表明:消费对农民工市民化进程具有较大影响力;农民工与城市居民消费差距的缩小对市民化率的增长具有促进作用,正向冲击效应持续时间长且强度大。农民工与城市居民收入差距的变化对农民工市民化率有正负双向冲击,短期对农民工市民化有负向冲击效应,但随着时间的推移,正向效应逐渐显著。鉴于此,关注农民工与城市居民消费差异,扩大农民工消费对中国经济建设和城镇化进程具有重要意义。     

提升我国生产性服务贸易竞争力的实证研究

随着国际分工的深入发展和网络信息技术的更新升级,生产性服务贸易在服务贸易内部的地位稳中有升,在世界经济发展和国际竞争中的地位日益显著,本文从生产性服务贸易竞争力入手,从经济规模、收入水平、外商投资、货物贸易规模、服务业发展水平、服务贸易开放度研究与生产性服务贸易竞争力的关系,通过平稳性检验、回归分析、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数的分析,得出相关结论并就提升生产性服务贸易提出对策建议。     

超低频通信中海洋补偿滤波器设计

分析了超低频接收机中海洋补偿滤波器的作用,分别采用1零点1极点、2零点1极点 无限脉冲响应滤波器设计超低频海洋补偿滤波器,零点和极点通过数值计算得到。分析结果 表明：在20～200 Hz频段内,实现的滤波器可以很好地逼近理论的海洋补偿滤波器;在 0～130 m范围内,实现的2零点1极点滤波器可以将幅度响应误差控制在1 dB左右, 能满足超低频接收机的设计要求。     

我国货币政策传导机制有效性研究

本文利用我国2005年1月到2012年12月的宏观数据,通过数据的稳定性检验和协整检验,比较分析货币政策信贷传导机制和货币传导机制的有效性,并运用脉冲响应函数和状态空间模型对变量进行实证分析。结果显示信贷传导渠道对我国物价的影响有较强滞后性,通过货币渠道进行物价的调控更为有效;信贷渠道和货币渠道共同影响我国经济运行,相比较而言,货币渠道对经济的拉动作用较强。     

Processing Anti-smoking Ads among College Students: The Role of Emotional Response and Level of Smoking

ABSTRACT

The protection motivation model has contributed usefully to researchers’ understanding of fear appeals in advertising. However, the empirical evidence reported to date in the literature has been mixed. An overview of literature reveals that the effect of emotional response and personal difference has not been explored as often as fear in health care marketing. The present study focused on this emotion in a context of antismoking advertisements. Based on the protection motivation theory, a modified structural model was proposed including emotional response and personal difference. Model was tested using college students in United States and Korea.